There is a rare consensus between Taiwan and China today: both are in favor of a second term for Trump. A recent study published by Global Views Monthly, one of the leading magazines in Taiwan, shows that 53% of Taiwanese people believe a Trump re-election would be better for Taiwan than a Biden victory, which only 16.4% of the island’s population would welcome.
This disparity is hardly surprising. Mr. Trump is considered by many pundits as “the most pro-Taiwan president in U.S. history” since diplomatic relations were severed between both sides in 1979[1]. Joe Biden, meanwhile, is referred to by Chinese President Xi Jinping as “old friend,” who he has met multiple times.
While the Obama administration declined to sell F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan to avoid tension with China, the Trump administration has approved several arms sales to the island since 2016. Furthermore, the US has also passed many laws, including the Taiwan Travel Act and the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative, showing unprecedented support for Taiwan.
These laws have greatly contributed to improving relations between the U.S. and Taiwan. Yet, as pointed out by Wang Ting-yu, a legislator from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, these laws lack “executable items that yield concrete results,” a viewpoint shared by Mr. William Stanton, a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan from 2009 to 2012. Stanton agrees that “implementation of Taiwan legislation remains questionable.”
Although Biden’s policy will be less pro-Taiwan than the one conducted by Trump, it would ensure stability in the region, making the Taiwan Strait safer amid fears of war. Primarily, because under Biden’s leadership the U.S. would be less inclined to provoke China, which could lessen the possibility of a Chinese military assault on Taiwan.
“Antony Blinken, who is likely to become Biden’s Secretary of State, has stated that he will adopt a balancing strategy in dealing with the cross-strait relations” explains Dr. Edward I-Hsin Chen, Professor Emeritus of the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University. This approach could also help mitigate the growing enmity between the world’s two superpowers.
According to Dr. Chen and Professor Chao Chun-shan, the chief advisor of Taiwan’s Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, who was also the leading organizer behind the historic Ma–Xi meeting in Singapore in 2015[2], the U.S.-China confrontation will endure regardless of which presidential candidate prevails. They believe, however, that Biden would pursue a more constructive diplomacy, for example by reengaging with America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific region and international institutions, such as the World Trade Organization, when competing with China. This, in turn, could create an opportunity for Taiwan to communicate with China,” which is essential to Professor Chao who believes “the cross-strait neighbors must communicate with each other no matter what.”
The U.S. defense commitment to Taiwan is another key barometer of this bilateral relation. There is one indicator worth assessing. On September 17, U.S. Under Secretary of State Keith Krach arrived in Taiwan to attend the memorial ceremony of Taiwan's former President Lee Teng-hui. In reaction, China sent 18 fighter jets flying over the Taiwan Strait the next day, and 19 the day after that. The U.S. chose not to react dispatching none in return.
“This is a message to Taiwan that the U.S. will only send its fighter jets to the Taiwan Strait when it has to protect its own national interests. Taiwan has to handle the tensions it creates, such as overexaggerating the possibility of re-establishing diplomatic ties with the U.S.,” Dr. Chen contends[3].
That said, the US and Taiwan could nonetheless build a stronger economic relationship, particularly since Taiwan lifted restrictions on imports of American pork products in August. These restrictions have long been major obstacles hindering negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between both sides. Discussions may progress now, although, points out Mr. William Foreman, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Taipei, “much depends on who Biden would appoint to be the U.S. Trade Representative.” A US-Taiwan trade agreement also depends on China. “If the (U.S.) Phase One trade deal with China falls apart, I think the door will be wide open for the BTA between Taiwan and the U.S.," Mr. Foreman further added
Ultimately, when it comes to pushing forward a BTA between Taiwan and the U.S., Mr. Foreman believes that “Taiwan needs to continue strengthening its position as a reliable, solid partner, especially with technology.”
If President Tsai’s priorities are indeed “to establish a constructive security relationship, built on the clear understanding of our shared interests in the region,” then a Biden victory, combined with his faith in democracy, should be a more welcome result for Taiwan than a Trump re-election.
[1] In 1979, the United States de-recognized the Republic of China, commonly known as Taiwan, while establishing diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, which is ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. For more information: https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter [2] In 2015, Ma Ying-jeou, President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, held a meeting in Singapore; this was the first time leaders from the cross-strait met each other since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. For more information: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1875591/civil-war-civil-greetings-why-president-xi-jinpings [3] The re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the U.S. is a red line for China, which, if realized, could directly lead to military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. For more information: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/world/asia/china-propaganda-united-states.html and https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/What-would-happen-if-the-US-recognized-Taiwan
Comments